cross-posted @ Daily Kos
While 'Presumptive' Democratic Nominee Barack Obama is starting to flex his muscle how money will flow in through the DNC, the GOP are shaking in their shoes, LITERALLY.
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As much as the GOP continues to attempt to slam Barack Obama on experience, national security, the economy, the Iraq War, etc., one thing they are having a come to Jesus moment about is money.
With Hillary Clinton’s campaign coming to an end this weekend, Barack Obama’s rise as the Democratic nominee brings serious bad news to a new group — John McCain’s finance team.
A review of campaign finance data offers not one ounce of good news and barely any hope for the McCain campaign’s ability to compete with Obama’s fundraising prowess.
At one point, the general public, yes we were not into the money thing for candidates. 2007 changed all this. The horserace was not just debates, states in play, supporters, but MONEY.
The money that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton raised has taken the oxygen out of the room for the GOP. Though George W. Bush is still a money draw, the GOP or Republican brand is not, throw in a lackluster 71-year old candidate, it is really tough.
Obama raised a staggering 272M through the month of April and now that Clinton is officially getting out of the race, he is now reaching to the Clinton fundraisers who brought Hillary Clinton a shattering 200M.
Look at this model:
- If each of Obama’s donors gave him a modest $250, he’d have $375 million to spend during the two-month general election sprint. That’s $186 million a month; $47 million a week.
- During the same September to Nov. 4th period, McCain will have about $85 million to spend since he has decided to take taxpayer money to help finance his campaign activities.
- The Republican National Committee, which is charged with closing the gap between McCain and Obama, has $40 million in cash. Obama raised almost as much — $31 million – from just his small donors in the month of February. His total for the month, $57 million, exceeded the RNC’s cash balance.
- Obama has more than 1.5 million donors; McCain has a few hundred thousand. If just a million of Obama’s donors sent him the maximum donation, $2,300, he could raise $2.3 billion.
A staggering possibility, mixed with reality.
Now, I am pondering about the request of 10 town hall meetings with Barack Obama that John McCain is asking of the Obama Campaign. I am a pessimist when it comes to the Republicans, we all should. The notion or possibility of 10 unscripted town hall meetings is inviting. Sure, it gives the public a chance to watch these two together and more so to listen to policy Q&A without the spin. But who benefits?
I think both do, but I give the edge to John McCain.
Why?
Who needs this more? Who need to reintroduce themselves to the public? Who want to look more young/hip? Who want to pump their chest and try to make Obama look more like a youngster than a seasoned politician who happens to be young? And who wants free media exposure without paying for it because of lack of money?
I am sure you can answer these questions, which is why I am more prone to NO. McCain is in a deep money funk, as well as the GOP. Though a war hero and decent man, overall, why cave into any requests or demands from him?
Which is why Obama should play the same trick he played on Clinton, which won him the nomination. What is that? Make them spend their money to try to keep up. Then when you know they are low on funds, spread the money table to isolate them to play in only a few fields.
Such a massive financial advantage will allow Obama to compete in more states than McCain and force his rival to defend states that should rightfully be Republican wins.
Obama’s use of such tactics has already been on display in the primary.
Pennsylvania was a must-win for Clinton and, given its large population of working class Democrats and women, was a long-shot for Obama.
Still, he spent $10 million advertising in the Keystone State. Why? He forced Clinton to spend all her money and much of her time there to ensure she pocketed a ten-point win.
Yes, Clinton won Pennsylvania, but remember it was the 11 straight losses that sunk the nomination for Clinton, in which she was never able to catch up. Those primary and caucus states that was never on her radar, post February 5th, which gave Obama the nomination.
Obama is going to play in the south, meaning make them spend money in their own backyard; also the western states which are GOP strongholds but now become battleground states, and the usual 'blue' suspect states.
In the general election, Obama could afford to set up large operations in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, New Mexico and a host of other states – maybe even McCain’s own Arizona..
That would force McCain to pick the mid-size state battles he could afford while also trying to hold off a free-spending Obama in such essential big states as Ohio, Missouri and Florida.
“McCain has to make every dollar count in the general election and Obama will have money to burn,” said Evan Tracey, co-founder of Campaign Media Analysis Group.
The financial gap between the two presumed nominees was also on display during the primaries. Obama spent $75 million on television advertising; McCain spent $11 million, according to Tracey.
In the end, the GOP should be afraid, they should be very afraid of Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
Kossacks, Keep the Pressure On...
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