Friday, October 31, 2008
McCain Can't Afford Bush's Ground Game
So, expect negative ads in the droves from the McCain Campaign this weekend. This is their ground game.
Sen. John McCain and the Republican National Committee will unleash a barrage of spending on television advertising that will allow him to keep pace with Sen. Barack Obama's ad blitz during the campaign's final days, but the expenditures will impact McCain's get-out-the-vote efforts, according to Republican strategists.
I have seen up front and close the Obama Ground Game from the primaries, as I will see it this weekend, up close, again.
An effective ground game can be worth 1-3 points on election day, if driven correctly and ferociously.
Many thought that Kerry would win in 2004, but Kerry did a lot of things in error that Obama took notice. For one, the Democrats "contracted out" their GOTV, which means they had no control as to what was actually happening on the ground, because Kerry was not running it. They also did not have the demographics of this country straight. This means that Kerry 2004 was surprised by the evangelical vote, which put Bush over the top in Ohio. Kerry Campaign were totally clueless. If Kerry had built and run his GOTV from the start, touching voters early vs. later, he would have become aware of this demographic.
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.
"The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground," said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. "The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel."
Obama has maintained a substantial financial advantage during the general election campaign, forcing McCain to make tough decisions when locking down a final spending plan about two weeks ago. continue
Right now polls mean nothing. Really the polls don't. What is important is getting people to the polls on November 4th or to Early Vote if warranted this late date. North Carolina ends tomorrow, November 1st and Florida ends Sunday, November 2nd.
If you have not given to the Obama Campaign, now is the time. He needs money, because the barrage of the McCain ads will be hard and swift, 24/7. Also, an independent group has purchased ad time, nationally, to run a Reverend Wright ad. This ad is up now and if you have not viewed the ad, yet, you will.
The time to donate and GOTV for this campaign is now.
This election is not in the bag, anything can happen, but if we lose many have to look at themselves and ask the question, "Did I do everything I possibly could to ensure an Obama Victory?" If you did not, you are part of the problem.
Let's get busy.
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Thursday, October 30, 2008
McCain admits Obama not a socialist (Video)
h/t think progress
Can we get off this topic, now?
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Obama Morning Break. GOTV Time.
Barack and President Bill Clinton in Kissimmee, Florida
••
GOTV. Period.
Alright, we have five days left. Five days left.
For those in early voting states, VOTE. Then help this campaign to GOTV on Tuesday. If you are in or close to a battleground state, GET THERE, ASAP.
The polls are tightening. Yes, the polls.
At this point, the only thing that is relevant is the ground game for Tuesday. The only thing that matters is getting folks to the polls.
I am confident that Obama will win, but the votes have not been counted and until the votes are counted, we are running like we are 20 points behind.
Remember, we win by VOTES not the "We got this" mentality.
••
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Together at Last
On a chilly Florida night, former President Bill Clinton warmly embraced Senator Barack Obama as a fresh leader for a new generation of Americans and implored voters to rally behind his candidacy to return the nation to a steady course.
“This man should be our president – all of our president,” Mr. Clinton said, speaking to thousands of people here who turned out for a late-night rally. “He’s going to be the next president unless Americans forget what this election is all about.”
ix days before Election Day, the two men made their first joint campaign appearance of the season, striding onto the stage alone together. In the eyes of hopeful Democrats, it carried the air of a torch-passing – absent any of the bitterness from the long presidential primary – as they wore wide smiles and heaped praise onto one another.
Mr. Clinton delivered a spirited argument for the Democratic ticket, offering four distinct reasons to support Mr. Obama on Election Day next week: his philosophy, his policies, his ability to make a decision and his ability to bring change to people’s lives. continue
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Barack and Joe in Sunrise, Florida
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Obama Banks: Clues From The Early Vote
First, click through the data here and here.
Gallup and Pew data show that Democrats are leading in the early vote. The equally reliable Annenberg National Election Survey's data shows that, across the country, Democrats are tied with Republicans in the early vote. Obviously, early voting matters by state only, but these datums are worth noting because Republicans have historically held an early vote advantage nationwide. (Note: Republicans tend to get their folks to fill out absentee ballots and return them early; Dems are investing disproportionately in getting people to leave their homes and vote early, so Democratic numbers will increase as the election approaches.)
In battleground states, Obama is "leading" in Florida (2.5 million people; Democrats have a +6 advantage on ballots turned in) up slightly in Colorado (note that the early vote is already approaching 50% of the 2004 total), leading in Nevada, overperforming in North Carolina (where Dems have historically had a good program) and a few points behind in Georgia. (35.5% of the early voters there are black.)
A note about Colorado: an internal Republican spreadsheet suggests that Democrats have returned 34.6% of their ballots as of Tuesday and Republicans have returned 32.9% of their ballots for about a 15,000 vote advantage. In 2004, at about this time, Republicans had n advantage and won the early vote by about eight points. 1.6 million people requested mail-in ballots -- that's triple the 2004 number -- and Obama has a two to one advantage with low turnout voters who've already turned in their ballots. continue
and..................
Obama in Arizona?????
Morning Reaction: Obama Seriously Considering "Late Surge" into Arizona
Obama Informerical/Commercial
Recession, official. While Exxon/Mobil breaks record profits.
McCain camp trying to scapegoat Palin
Campaign Appearances
more info @ barackobama.com, under states
Today
Barack: Columbia, Missouri; Sarasota, Florida; Virginia Beach, VA
Joe: Allentown, PA; Williamsport, PA; Arnold, Missouri
President Clinton: Toledo, OH; Campbell, OH
Tomorrow
Barack: Des Moines, IA; Highland, IN
Joe and Jill: Lima, OH, Kettering, OH;
Hillary: Ironton, OH; Kirtland, OH
Al and Tipper Gore: Ft. Lauderdale, FL; West Palm Beach, FL
Saturday
Barack: Henderson, NV
Barack and Michelle: Pueblo, CO
Joe and Jill: Evansville, IN; Marion, OH
••
Can McCain win White House?
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Barack Obama and President Bill Clinton Rally in Kissimmee (Orlando), Florida, October 29, 2008 (Video)
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Obama Show
Obama is on television tonight for a 30 minute, uninterrupted closing argument to the American public.
Some may think it is an "overkill", but I view it differently.
Since talking about Obama for almost 2 years, dissin' the misinformation, this is another opportunity for Obama to touch millions of viewers with his vision of movement for this country.
The debates worked in Obama's favor over McCain, basically because after all of the gross misinterpretation of Obama, people came off viewing Obama as a calm, intelligent and nice person. Someone the public can relate too.
I overheard one person state, "He is not Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, he is like Will Smith and we like "Will Smith." This is the lasting impression that the McCain Campaign can't erase, especially after McCain's horrible debate performances.
Obama TV is on 7P (CST) on NBC, CBS, Univision, MSNBC, BET, TV1, and FOX (check your local listings).
Mr. Obama’s campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial.
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.” continue
As for McCain and the conservatives? Grumpy, as usual.
When the video is available, I will post it later this evening.
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