Barack in LaCrosse, Wisconsin
Keep on your toes
The polls are rolling OUT. Just look to your right under the flagship of Pollster.com and click on the links, even go to the site!! The polls are on a roll for Barack. It is all good.
But, I am a testy pessimist at times and this is one of them.
I am not a poll god, oops, goddess, so I refer my brain to be taken over by Nate at fivethirtyeight.com and read his analysis, also to the right. One of the best pollsters out here in the business. His model has beat many established pollsters this past primary and he deserves all the cred he is getting, but I refer to his analysis.
Anyhow, for me polls are pesky little numbers. They go up and they go down. I just want the number, but my brother and cyber friends always want to know what drives the numbers, it is called the internals. Again, I am a testy pessimist right now.
I will tell you why. Remember, New Hampshire? When the poll numbers were all over the place? Barack was supposed to win, but we know who actually did. Well, I am not anywhere to the point that Barack won't win this, but I believe the numbers are much tighter than what these public polls are dictating.
I am glad that early voting has started because we need to bank these votes NOW, not later, but NOW. Why? The McCain Campaign is bleeding and bleeding badly. The tricks and gimmicks of McCain have not gone over well to the public and Sarah Palin "Unleashed" has not been what the McCain Campaign expected. She is dangerously close to becoming a caricature, which means tomorrow night's debate is very important for her. Palin must convince the public that she deserves to be on the stage and is competent enough to become the Vice President of the United States, if elected.
When you are bleeding, you go with what you know. That is character assassination, which is going straight up racial, that is bringing back Reverend Wright. Folks, he is coming back, whether we like it or not. I am hoping he does not have the impact, as he did in March. I am hoping the public will move past this. But, nothing is guaranteed, which is why banking the votes early in these battleground states is imperative at this point. And McCain has to do this, the economy is not his thing, people are "meh" on the wars now, folks are worried about their money, jobs and future. McCain does not have any answers but he knows how to muddy up the waters and that is what will happen, I believe, sooner than later. Use race to divide the numbers and hope they swing your way, which is McCain's answer.
Of course we don't like this, but just remember to keep on your toes.
Chuck Todd and Charlie Cook on the Poll numbers and bringing back Reverend Wright
John McCain the Angry Interview, Editorial Board of Des Moines Register
First off, why is McCain in Iowa? Barack has a double digit lead over McCain in Iowa, so why in the hell is he in Iowa? Personally, he is wasting time.
But the interview is fascinating. McCain is an old timer. His way or the highway. That attitude comes off crystal clear in this interview.
Watch it here.
Ad, "Spending Spree"
Nervous GOP urges McCain to attack
John McCain’s fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.
A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states – most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate.
Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama’s vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago.
But as September turns to October—Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election—it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems. His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday’s House vote.
And his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, initially a political boon, has become a distraction inside and out of the campaign, with top staff now sidelined trying to avoid a debate disaster on Thursday night, officials close to the campaign say. continue
CNN on the battleground states and their polling numbers
Barack in Washington, DC to cast vote for the "Bailout Bill"
New Obama plan: Hit hard on radio
Jay-Z free concert in Miami for Voter Registration
Polls Show Obama Lead Growing
In the mail, and on the phones, in Missouri
Guest Post: Michelle Obama on Making Our Voices Heard
Obama Morning Break, Here
Reminder, Vice Presidential Debate tomorrow 9 PM EST, on all the major and cable channels
go to the campaign website front page, for more information
Thursday, October 2nd
East Lansing, Michigan; Grand Rapids, Michigan