Friday, October 31, 2008
So, expect negative ads in the droves from the McCain Campaign this weekend. This is their ground game.
Sen. John McCain and the Republican National Committee will unleash a barrage of spending on television advertising that will allow him to keep pace with Sen. Barack Obama's ad blitz during the campaign's final days, but the expenditures will impact McCain's get-out-the-vote efforts, according to Republican strategists.
I have seen up front and close the Obama Ground Game from the primaries, as I will see it this weekend, up close, again.
An effective ground game can be worth 1-3 points on election day, if driven correctly and ferociously.
Many thought that Kerry would win in 2004, but Kerry did a lot of things in error that Obama took notice. For one, the Democrats "contracted out" their GOTV, which means they had no control as to what was actually happening on the ground, because Kerry was not running it. They also did not have the demographics of this country straight. This means that Kerry 2004 was surprised by the evangelical vote, which put Bush over the top in Ohio. Kerry Campaign were totally clueless. If Kerry had built and run his GOTV from the start, touching voters early vs. later, he would have become aware of this demographic.
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices. This week, a number of veteran GOP operatives who orchestrate door-to-door efforts to get voters to the polls were told they should not expect to receive plane tickets, rental cars or hotel rooms from the campaign.
"The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground," said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. "The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel."
Obama has maintained a substantial financial advantage during the general election campaign, forcing McCain to make tough decisions when locking down a final spending plan about two weeks ago. continue
Right now polls mean nothing. Really the polls don't. What is important is getting people to the polls on November 4th or to Early Vote if warranted this late date. North Carolina ends tomorrow, November 1st and Florida ends Sunday, November 2nd.
If you have not given to the Obama Campaign, now is the time. He needs money, because the barrage of the McCain ads will be hard and swift, 24/7. Also, an independent group has purchased ad time, nationally, to run a Reverend Wright ad. This ad is up now and if you have not viewed the ad, yet, you will.
The time to donate and GOTV for this campaign is now.
This election is not in the bag, anything can happen, but if we lose many have to look at themselves and ask the question, "Did I do everything I possibly could to ensure an Obama Victory?" If you did not, you are part of the problem.
Let's get busy.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Barack and President Bill Clinton in Kissimmee, Florida
Alright, we have five days left. Five days left.
For those in early voting states, VOTE. Then help this campaign to GOTV on Tuesday. If you are in or close to a battleground state, GET THERE, ASAP.
The polls are tightening. Yes, the polls.
At this point, the only thing that is relevant is the ground game for Tuesday. The only thing that matters is getting folks to the polls.
I am confident that Obama will win, but the votes have not been counted and until the votes are counted, we are running like we are 20 points behind.
Remember, we win by VOTES not the "We got this" mentality.
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Together at Last
On a chilly Florida night, former President Bill Clinton warmly embraced Senator Barack Obama as a fresh leader for a new generation of Americans and implored voters to rally behind his candidacy to return the nation to a steady course.
“This man should be our president – all of our president,” Mr. Clinton said, speaking to thousands of people here who turned out for a late-night rally. “He’s going to be the next president unless Americans forget what this election is all about.”
ix days before Election Day, the two men made their first joint campaign appearance of the season, striding onto the stage alone together. In the eyes of hopeful Democrats, it carried the air of a torch-passing – absent any of the bitterness from the long presidential primary – as they wore wide smiles and heaped praise onto one another.
Mr. Clinton delivered a spirited argument for the Democratic ticket, offering four distinct reasons to support Mr. Obama on Election Day next week: his philosophy, his policies, his ability to make a decision and his ability to bring change to people’s lives. continue
Barack and Joe in Sunrise, Florida
Obama Banks: Clues From The Early Vote
First, click through the data here and here.
Gallup and Pew data show that Democrats are leading in the early vote. The equally reliable Annenberg National Election Survey's data shows that, across the country, Democrats are tied with Republicans in the early vote. Obviously, early voting matters by state only, but these datums are worth noting because Republicans have historically held an early vote advantage nationwide. (Note: Republicans tend to get their folks to fill out absentee ballots and return them early; Dems are investing disproportionately in getting people to leave their homes and vote early, so Democratic numbers will increase as the election approaches.)
In battleground states, Obama is "leading" in Florida (2.5 million people; Democrats have a +6 advantage on ballots turned in) up slightly in Colorado (note that the early vote is already approaching 50% of the 2004 total), leading in Nevada, overperforming in North Carolina (where Dems have historically had a good program) and a few points behind in Georgia. (35.5% of the early voters there are black.)
A note about Colorado: an internal Republican spreadsheet suggests that Democrats have returned 34.6% of their ballots as of Tuesday and Republicans have returned 32.9% of their ballots for about a 15,000 vote advantage. In 2004, at about this time, Republicans had n advantage and won the early vote by about eight points. 1.6 million people requested mail-in ballots -- that's triple the 2004 number -- and Obama has a two to one advantage with low turnout voters who've already turned in their ballots. continue
Obama in Arizona?????
Morning Reaction: Obama Seriously Considering "Late Surge" into Arizona
Recession, official. While Exxon/Mobil breaks record profits.
McCain camp trying to scapegoat Palin
more info @ barackobama.com, under states
Barack: Columbia, Missouri; Sarasota, Florida; Virginia Beach, VA
Joe: Allentown, PA; Williamsport, PA; Arnold, Missouri
President Clinton: Toledo, OH; Campbell, OH
Barack: Des Moines, IA; Highland, IN
Joe and Jill: Lima, OH, Kettering, OH;
Hillary: Ironton, OH; Kirtland, OH
Al and Tipper Gore: Ft. Lauderdale, FL; West Palm Beach, FL
Barack: Henderson, NV
Barack and Michelle: Pueblo, CO
Joe and Jill: Evansville, IN; Marion, OH
Can McCain win White House?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Michele Bachmann, over again.
Obama is on television tonight for a 30 minute, uninterrupted closing argument to the American public.
Some may think it is an "overkill", but I view it differently.
Since talking about Obama for almost 2 years, dissin' the misinformation, this is another opportunity for Obama to touch millions of viewers with his vision of movement for this country.
The debates worked in Obama's favor over McCain, basically because after all of the gross misinterpretation of Obama, people came off viewing Obama as a calm, intelligent and nice person. Someone the public can relate too.
I overheard one person state, "He is not Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, he is like Will Smith and we like "Will Smith." This is the lasting impression that the McCain Campaign can't erase, especially after McCain's horrible debate performances.
Obama TV is on 7P (CST) on NBC, CBS, Univision, MSNBC, BET, TV1, and FOX (check your local listings).
Mr. Obama’s campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial.
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.” continue
As for McCain and the conservatives? Grumpy, as usual.
When the video is available, I will post it later this evening.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Florida Governor Charlie Crist, to the shock and dismay of Florida Republicans, just moved to extend early voting hours, a move likely to widen the Democrats' lead under a program on which the Obama campaign has intensely focused.
"He just blew Florida for John McCain," one plugged in Florida Republican just told me.
The hours in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties have been 3/4 hour wait time. It was the republican state legislature that changed the hours to 8 from 12. Now Crist signs an executive order, effective immediately to extend the early voting hours?
Are we seeing sour grapes for McCain? If Crist was picked for VP, Obama would not have a serious chance in the state.
Let's be honest, the GOP are afraid of the lines they are seeing for early voting, especially in Florida and Georgia. There are seeing new, young, and AA voters coming out at a record number and they are afraid. Besides, we all know they are not about everybody voting. The GOP are notorious for tricks and mischief to suppress the voter turnout.
Charlie Crist, may be sending a political message to McCain, but is doing the right thing.
Barack in Pittsburgh, PA
Does anyone believe this is over? Not with a skinny guy, from Illinois, with a name of Barack Obama. It.is.not.over.
In fact, I expect everyone to have huge intensity for the next seven days. Why? In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania the Republican 527s are running a new Reverend Wright ad, and it could be effective. How effective? I don't know, but it could move a point or two in polling. This is why it was important for Obama to refuse public financing for his campaign, it allows him to refute ads like this with his own. And he is outspending McCain on the average of 3:1 in these battleground states on advertising. Vitally important.
If you are in a state that allows early voting, please do so. Remember, the race is not over until the votes are counted. Also, work this campaign, all the information is to your left under, 'About Barack Obama.'
Full Video of Barack Obama's Closing Argument Speech
Stevens verdict likely to inch Dems closer to 'magic 60′
Ted Steven's guilty verdict Monday afternoon could mean the end of the Alaska lawmaker's 40-year tenure in the Senate and serve to inch the already emboldened Democratic Party closer to 60 seats in the Senate, recent polls of the Alaska race suggest.
In an Ivan Moore Research poll of the Alaska Senate race conducted earlier this month, entirely before the verdict was handed down, Stevens and Democratic challenger Mark Begich were statistically tied. Several other recent surveys have also suggested the race is neck-and-neck.
But the prospect of Stevens, first elected to the Senate in 1968, facing a tough reelection race was unthinkable only a few months ago. After all, the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Alaska is former presidential candidate Mike Gravel. Gravel served two terms, from 1969 to 1981, before embarking on his unsuccessful presidential bid 26 years later. Stevens is also an icon in the state, responsible (and now infamous) for securing billions of federal dollars for the state, including the ill-fated "bridge to nowhere." continue
Michelle in Las Vegas, Nevada
Oh, Brother, Now Obama is Compared to the 'Third Reich'
It is crap like this that have many voters saying, "Enough".
More than 75,000 Jews throughout the Keystone state got an email Thursday from the “Republican Federal Committee of PA – Victory 2008” that compares a victory by Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., to Nazi victories before the Holocaust.
“Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision” the email said, making a number of false or misleading assertions about Obama and adding that “Many of our ancestors ignored the warning signs in the 1930s and 1940s and made a tragic mistake. Let's not make a similar one this year!"
Abraham H. Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League and a Holocaust survivor, condemned the email.
“Ugly, divisive personal attacks against a candidate for any political office should never be acceptable, and using Holocaust analogies is completely beyond the pale," Foxman said. "Regardless of which candidate one supports, it is shocking and profoundly distressing that anyone would see fit to make such an odious, false and repugnant analogy. Not only does it further debase the level of our political discourse, but it also diminishes and trivializes the virulent anti-Semitism and Nazi aggression that led to the slaughter of six million Jews and millions of others.” continue
The Republican Party is showing itself to be a party of non-inclusive. This is a reason that many will lose their seats in congress, next week.
ATF foiled plot to assassinate Barack Obama
RNC buying time for West Virginia and Montana, polling showing Obama is closing in; but McCain cuts ads in Minnesota
Michelle on The Tonight Show
End of Battle Centers on Turf Bush Carried
The Next New Deal
McCain Largely Trying To Defend Traditionally GOP States
Morning Reaction: Internal GOP Poll has McCain Only +3 in AZ
Dems in GOP strongholds get Obama boost
get information on rsvp, time from barackobama.com
Barack: Chester, PA; Harrisonburg, VA; Norfolk, VA
Michelle: Las Vegas, NM; Colorado Springs, CO
Joe: Melbourne, FL; Ocala, FL;
Hillary: Manchester, NH; Pelham, NH
Barack: Raleigh, NC; Sunrise, FL
President Clinton: Harrisburg, PA
Barack and President Clinton: Kissimmee, FL
Michelle: Rocky Mount, NC
Joe: Jupiter, FL
Barack: Columbia, MO
Status of the Race, 7 days out
Monday, October 27, 2008
What does this mean?
It means this seat can go democrat, that is what it means. But will it? Stevens has a history of bringing home the "bacon" for his state, i.e., earmarks. Don't think people won't think about that.
In the end, he is a convicted felon. Don't forget it was Stevens who wanted this trial before the election, he pushed for this. Well, now his nightmare has come true, convicted.
Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history and patriarch of Alaska politics, was convicted Monday of all seven felony charges for making false statements.
The verdict could spell an ignominious end to the political career of a man who rose to be one of the most dominant figures in the Senate and helped transform Alaska in its 50 years of statehood.
Jurors deliberated from scratch Monday morning with the addition of an alternate juror, and in little more than five hours delivered a unanimous verdict on all counts. The verdict comes just eight days before Stevens faces the toughest reelection bid of his four-decade career.
Shortly before 4 p.m., the jury convicted the 84-year-old senator for making false statements by failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts from Bill Allen, the former head of Veco Corp., and other friends.
In a packed courtroom, Stevens appeared expressionless, holding his stomach while the verdict was read. The courtroom was silent as the powerful Republican's fate was read to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The senator left the courtroom without taking questions and was shuttled into a white van waiting for him and his team of attorneys.
Stevens has yet to indicate if he will appeal the charges. continue
This is just disgusting.
It plays on the bad, hateful, worst part of people.
Federal agents have broken up a plot by two neo-Nazi skinheads to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco Firearms and Explosives said Monday.
In court records unsealed Monday in U.S. District Court in Jackson, Tenn., federal agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target a predominantly African-American high school in a murder spree that was to begin in Tennessee. Agents said the skinheads did not identify the school by name.
Kill Black People????
Anyway, we have had enough of this negativity coming from these idiots. But, I will state this, McCain/Palin uncorked this crap and allowed it to roll, until they were called on it. I also believe there are two silent majorities out there. Those that harbor this and those that refute it.
I believe there are more that refute this.
VOTE NOVEMBER 4TH FOR CHANGE. LET US APPEAL TO OUR BETTER ANGELS. WE ARE BETTER THAN THIS.
This map does not look good for McCain. Again, the votes have NOT BEEN TALLIED. If you are in an early voting state, please vote NOW.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
45,000 for Barack in Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Hunt for Blue October: GOTV Ohio! by JulieUnplugged; Barack does Denver, 100,000+, No Joke (Pictures) by icebergslim; Obama Rally - Leesburg, VA - Photo Blowout! by nsfbr; Michelle Obama in Ohio by jmknapp; Obama in Reno....If You Vote For Me Nevada....Change! by Parisgnome; 35,000 Hoosiers gives Obama a send off to Hawaii, October 23, 2008 by icebergslim; 100k People in Denver For Obama w/pics! by acsguitar; 50,000 in Orlando, Florida for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and Obama in Tampa, Too (Pictures) by icebergslim; Michelle Obama incites 10,000+ FL hopemongers! Pics & Video! by Bob Sackamento
Economic strife drives Latino vote
Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Anchorage Daily News Endorse Obama for President
Obama picks iconic Chicago park for election night
Obama To Deliver Closing Argument Speech
Obama, McCain fight for Western Swing States
McCain downplays smaller audiences
Newspaper Endorsements for Obama
Barack and Michelle in Miami, Florida
The Making (and Remaking) of McCain
On the morning of Wednesday, Sept. 24, John McCain convened a meeting in his suite at the Hilton hotel in Midtown Manhattan. Among the handful of campaign officials in attendance were McCain’s chief campaign strategist, Steve Schmidt, and his other two top advisers: Rick Davis, the campaign manager; and Mark Salter, McCain’s longtime speechwriter. The senator’s ears were already throbbing with bad news from economic advisers and from House Republican leaders who had told him that only a small handful in their ranks were willing to support the $700 billion bailout of the banking industry proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The meeting was to focus on how McCain should respond to the crisis — but also, as one participant later told me, “to try to see this as a big-picture, leadership thing.”
As this participant recalled: “We presented McCain with three options. Continue offering principles from afar. A middle ground of engaging while still campaigning. Then the third option, of going all in. The consensus was that we could stay out or go in — but that if we’re going in, we should go in all the way. So the thinking was, do you man up and try to affect the outcome, or do you hold it at arm’s length? And no, it was not an easy call.”
Discussion carried on into the afternoon at the Morgan Library and Museum as McCain prepared for the first presidential debate. Schmidt pushed for going all in: suspending the campaign, recommending that the first debate be postponed, parachuting into Washington and forging a legislative solution to the financial crisis for which McCain could then claim credit. Exactly how McCain could convincingly play a sober bipartisan problem-solver after spending the previous few weeks garbed as a populist truth teller was anything but clear. But Schmidt and others convinced McCain that it was worth the gamble. continue
White support for Obama at historic high
Palin allies report rising camp tension
Obama says goodbye to 'Toot,' heads back to presidential campaign
The Polls May Be Screwy But Barack Obama's Lead Is Real Because He's Strong Among White Voters
Candidates should seek votes of Muslim-Americans
Students Charged in Dead Bear/Obama Sign Incident
Polls see rising tide for Dems
As Election Day Nears, Poll Shows Obama Leads McCain
Sorry, Senator. Let's Salvage What We Can.
WE GOT THIS!!!
Um, not yet.
You must understand that I am like Dr. Jekyll and Ms. Hyde. My one mind says, “We got this”, but my other mind says, “Uh, no we don’t.”
See, I get that all fuzzy, warm feeling seeing all these picture diaries with record breaking crowds. I love putting them up. Then I start to think, “Will these people actually vote Obama?” I then remember Obama doing his 11 state tours during the primaries after Super Tuesday, the crowds were unbelievable!! He got them all fired up and they ran to the polls and caucuses in record breaking numbers. Wonderful. Then I remember Hillary telling Obama stop with the speeches and big rallies and then Obama, well got kicked around the second half of the primary season.
I know my scientific mind is telling me that with all the information, i.e. polls, metrics, analysis that Obama will win. But, my other mind says, “What is the vote total?”
We are in uncharted waters here, democrats. It is called, the “L” word. No one wants to say it, we don’t want to believe it, but it just may happen. When was the last time we were in “L” land? Was it Jimmy Carter, when the country rebuked the Republican Party and Nixon? Was it FDR, who was swept into office because of the Stock Market Crash? Whenever it was, it was a long time ago, that now we may just be looking at history on November 4th and we may just witness the “L” word in process, all evening.
I am humble, not cocky. I can’t be with two minds working simultaneously, but I must write again that “We ain’t got this.” We have 9 days left, for politics it is an eternity, but still 9 days left. Each one of us should be working extra hard to ensure victory on November 4th. Until the votes are counted, we must not assume anything.
I hope you all understand and work to the end. To the bloody end.
Joe in Martinsville, Virginia
Meet the Press, October 26, 2008; Obama Ad, "New Subject"; In S.D., Native Americans Face Voting Roadblocks; Ohio's Election Ground Game; Internet Grass Roots Changing Political Machine; Joe Biden Speech in Danville, VA; Joe Biden Destroys Right Winged TV Anchor in Orlando, FL; Obama Ad, "Defining Moment"; Andy, Opie and Fonzie for Obama; Voter Uncertainty Clouds Tossup State Indiana; Obama Ad, "Erratic"; Obama Speech in Miami, Florida; Obama on CBS Early Show; Obama on Good Morning America; What's Next In The Presidential Race?
Obama Rallies Supporters In Colorado
Obama launches anti-robocall site
Michelle Obama fills in for husband in swing state Ohio
Democrats Show In Early Voting
Africans mull what an Obama presidency may mean for continent
Sarah Palin's make-up artist earned $22,800 for two weeks' work
Obamacans: Prominent Republicans Line Up Behind Obama
‘No Drama Obama’ and the art of looking presidential
Shoutouts, Stuff You Should Read....
Obama for America, en español; Charles Stuart, Susan Smith, Ashley Todd And Reflections On Leadership… Again by Jack Turner; Presidential Transitions & the Arc of History by Maureen; Time Machine: Don't Say I Didn't Tell You by BooMan23; TV ad spending: 10/13-19 by kos; Early Voting Summary by brownsox; Missouri GOP distributing Obama $100 bills: "In Ahla we trust" by itsnotbutter; Today in Albuquerque: Obama Draws 45,000+ by kubla000; Obama draws 50K in Fort Collins, CO by pointsoflight; Frank Rich: "In Defense of White Americans" by Nuisance Industry; Lynch Mob by Meteor Blades; McCain Advisor endorses OBAMA by batchelorjc; The GOP's Death List, in all its glory by kos; WV Woman Quits Job Over anti-Obama Calls by wv voice of reason; Sarah Palin, freeloader. by Kagro X
Early-voting trends appear to favor Barack Obama
McCain's Warning: Perils Of One-Party Rule
Counting on Colorado
Obama's Transition: Orderly, Quiet, With A Few Early Decisions Made
Palin's 'going rogue,' McCain aide says
Obama targeting McCain's own state?
What is happening to GOP electoral tactics?
well, that is michelle and a cutie pie being sent over to her at the miami rally. i have been busy with family and obama stuff, but back on track. i hope all of you are working this final week, like you have never worked before. this campaign is truly in our hands and gotv is not a hope, but mandatory for november 4th. as always, focus on obama and not "mccain's" drama.....
go to barackobama.com, click on states to find times and rsvp info
Tomorrow, October 27th
Barack: Pittsburgh, PA; Canton, OH
Joe: Greensboro, NC; Grenville, NC; New Port Richey, FL
Michelle: Las Vegas, NV
Barack: Chester, PA; Harrisonburg, VA; Norfolk, VA
Joe: Melbourne, FL; Ocala, FL
Michelle: Las Vegas, NM; Colorado Springs, CO
Hillary: Manchester, NH; Pelham, NH
Joe: Jupiter, FL
Tip my Obama Jar, here!!!
Get Involved Here
For Inspiration: Yes.We.Can!!!
icebergslim1047 (at) gmail (dot) com
cross-posted @ Daily Kos
Barack at Civic Center Park, Denver, Colorado, 100,000
Obama's Speech: ""You can vote for change", Transcript
Cross-posted @ Daily Kos
These are large photos, scaled down to 300 width, fyi
To run on national cable